10.000
%
Neutral
48
mm boe
62
%
Greece stands to benefit significantly from a competitive bid round, which to date has been conspicuously absent. However, more recent comments from Greece's PM suggests that the government is finally cognisant of its energy shortfall, and that any domestic production will help balance of payments. Consequently, we upgrade our outlook to Neutral.
June 1, 2024
Europe - Mediterranean
mm bbl
bcf
Southern Europe, bordering the Aegean Sea, Ionian Sea, and the Mediterranean Sea, between Albania and Turkey.
Concession
Greece applies a concessionary regime for petroleum operations. Currently, there are two active licensing rounds for the exploration and exploitation of hydrocarbons offshore and onshore in Greece, the latter being regulated by the terms of a model lease agreement.
Greece has rebounded since the 2009-2018 financial crisis that saw real GDP decline by 25%. Modest growth began to return in 2019 and unemployment dropped from its crisis peak of 35% in 2013 to 12% in 2022. The Government of Greece (GoG) has implemented reforms and attracted investment by cutting red tape, boosting innovation and entrepreneurship, digitizing government services, and enabling more rapid growth in the renewable energy sector. Greece’s debt-to-GDP ratio decreased by more than 20% in 2022 – reflecting robust growth, fiscal adjustment, and higher inflation – and it benefits from relatively low debt servicing rates that should allow Greece to easily service its debt for the foreseeable future. Most major ratings agencies upgraded Greece’s sovereign debt rating to one notch below investment grade as of late January as a result of Greece’s sustained positive fiscal performance. The European Commission’s November 2022 forecast for the Greek economy predicted GDP growth of 6.0% in 2022 – nearly double the EU average – and 1.0% growth in 2023. The Mitsotakis government has pursued an aggressive investment and economic reform agenda. In recent years parliament approved dozens of economic-related bills, including a key investment law in October 2019, designed to cut red tape, help achieve full employment, and adopt best international practices – including by digitizing government services. Investors cite difficulties with Greece’s bureaucracy and lack of timely resolution in cases in litigation as impediments to investment.
Source: ESRI, Heritage Index, HMG Foreign & Commonwealth Office, US Department of State, International Trade Administration, International Law Review, Ernst & Young, Wood Makenzie & OGA data.
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