Commodity Weekly (October 16 2020)

Over the last week, the number of commentators that are talking openly about the less invasive and more selective approaches for dealing with Covid-19 has become more apparent.

In the first instance, there is a tendency to label any shift away from an accepted pattern as an outlier or a fringe perspective and be dismissive. However, the increase in dissenting voices is positive as science only thrives and grows with questioning.

These new perspectives are interesting as the underline two key shifts: (i) growing rationality, precipitated by increased knowledge; and (ii) increasing focus the underlying data than the stage-managed presentation of statistics.

The corollary of the rise in these outliers is that economic projections running Covid-19 scenarios are increasingly divergent quantitatively, but yet convergent qualitatively. Growing knowledge has fostered the hypothesis that: (i) the near-term impact will continue; (ii) the medium-term impact will not be as severe; and (iii) there will be a slower recovery.

This means that the recovery will not be “V” shaped from a deep low, but a “U” shape, with a longer recovery period , but from a higher level of economic activity than previously thought.

While quantitative estimates are likely to be revised continuously, resulting in volatility at the longer end of the projection time horizon, qualitatively, we think the trend is probably about right. Collectively, this is a substantial silver lining to what hither too has been a dark cloud.