10.000
%
Neutral
118
mm boe
0
%
Somalia remains a difficult place to operate, and while the new petroleum law clarifies the position of contractors, the security situation remains a significant drag on the country's attractiveness. However, the current licencing round is precipitating a new look at the country and peace seems to be becoming more widespread. Genel's recent initiation of its farmout in Somaliland will attract attention, but it remains to be seen if it will attract investors. Consequently, we believe that the outlook is Neutral.
June 18, 2024
Africa - East
mm bbl
bcf
PSC/PSA
The new petroleum law (2020) provides for 10% participation by the government, a royalty of up to 20% depending on production rate (15% for gas), and 100% cost recovery. The profit share varies from 90% at R<1, to 70% at R>3; taxation is levied at 30% on profits and a further 10% on franked income out of the country. Further, the new law also provides for a sinking fund for decommissioning, which needs to be assessed quarterly.
Generally, the government welcomes and seeks foreign direct investment; however, the current investment climate poses considerable risks for U.S. or other foreign investors. Formal economic activity is largely restricted to Mogadishu and the regional capitals that are under the control of the federal government or regional administrations. Somalia lacks a legal framework that would provide the basis for safe investment, including a strong judiciary, enforceable property rights and arbitration and dispute resolution processes. Corruption is rife in all government sectors and civil courts are largely non-functional. Despite economic reforms, according to Transparency International’s perception index, Somalia was perceived to be the most corrupt country in the world again in 2019. Despite this, there has been a positive economic trend over the past couple of years. According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), economic growth has rebounded, inflation has slowed, and the trade deficit has narrowed. Somalia’s Ministry of Finance reports domestic revenue collection in 2019 reached $230 million, up from $183 million in 2018. Economic sectors such telecommunications, agriculture and construction have experienced steady growth in recent years. The current administration has undertaken crucial reforms, including biometric registration of security personnel, paying civil servants by direct deposit, and fighting rampant corruption in the public sector. This has significantly raised the confidence of the Somali people, as well as Somalia’s international partners. Further, Somalia’s government is inviting bids for an offshore hydrocarbon licensing round.
Source: ESRI, Heritage Index, HMG Foreign & Commonwealth Office, US Department of State, International Trade Administration, International Law Review, Ernst & Young, Wood Makenzie & OGA data.
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